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After a year of failed multilateralism and bilateral brinkmanship, the Philippines has abandoned hope of pressing China into a compromise on territorial disputes in the South China Sea. While Manila?s recent decision to submit its case for United Nations mediation ups the diplomatic ante, Beijing?s out-of-hand rejection of the move indicates tensions could rise before they wane.
After a year of diplomatic deadlock at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) under the chairmanship of Cambodia, one of China?s staunchest regional allies, few expect a swift and decisive multilateral resolution under Brunei?s more neutral leadership in 2013 considering the significant divisions that have opened inside the 10-member grouping.
Based on the proceedings and outcomes of regional summits and gatherings held last year, Manila has come to realize the extent to which China is willing to use its multiple levers of influence to thwart any efforts at forging a unified regional response to the maritime disputes. Beijing has consistently insisted that the disputes should be settled exclusively through bilateral mechanisms.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-210213.html
By Richard Javad?Heydarian
Asia Times
At the same time, the economic stakes driving the disputes are rising. The US Energy Information Administration?s (EIA) recently estimated that the South China Sea could hold as much as 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proven and probable reserves. The EIA also projected significant undiscovered hydrocarbon deposits in the Spratly islands, specifically around the contested Reed Bank. [2]
If true, huge untapped oil and gas deposits within the Philippines? Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) would represent an economic boon. The Philippine economy is currently only 60% energy self-sufficient, with the 40% shortfall covered by oil and coal imports from neighboring and Middle Eastern countries. [3]
Yet China?s rising assertiveness and increasing willingness to challenge Japan and the United States ? both Philippine strategic allies ? indicates to some analysts that China has designs on securing that potential energy bonanza for its own economic and energy security. Chinese and Philippine vessels skirmished around Reed Bank in March 2011, signaling Beijing?s willingness to use limited coercion in disputes where energy resources are at stake.
China?s showdown with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu?islands in the East China Sea and its People?s Liberation Army?s (PLA) alleged role in recent cyber attacks against US targets [4] has by association stirred anxieties in the Philippines. Manila maintains strategic partnerships with both Tokyo and Washington, ties that President Benigno Aquino is bidding to deepen to close its yawning defense gap with China.
Aquino?s government has recently prodded the two powers to provide an extensive package of military aid, training and advanced hardware. The Philippines has effectively joined in a budding regional arms race through its pursuit, both through direct purchase and foreign military aid, of fighter jets, anti-ship missiles, patrol boats and naval helicopters to bolster its South China Sea claims.
Still, the Philippines has no intention of going head-to-head with its giant neighbor any time soon. Instead, Manila?s has adopted a two-pronged strategy that aims to deter further Chinese aggression by internationalizing the disputes through the United Nations while strengthening its defensive capabilities through deepened ties with powerful allies.
High stakes
While the Philippines has not been prone to the nationalistic outbursts seen in some neighboring countries, including China, Japan and Vietnam, Aquino?s administration increasingly views its territorial disputes through a lens of national pride, geostrategic interest and domestic calculation. After decades of negligence and strategic hibernation, Manila has awoken to the depth of its national interests in the South China Sea.
This recognition comes amid a discernable national mood swing. The Philippines is now among the world?s 10 fastest growing economies, with gross domestic product expected to grow by over 6% this year. Decades of political paralysis and endemic corruption have simultaneously galvanized civil society and youth groups, with many energized by Aquino?s promise of political change.
Faced with those fast rising popular expectations, Aquino?s government has astutely tapped into this grass roots dynamic. At the same time, a rising sense of national pride has put an even higher political and economic premium on securing the potential wealth of energy resources in the contested territories the Philippines claims in the South China Sea.
According to the most recent EIA report:
?The majority of current reserves exist in shallow water basins on the boundaries of the sea ? however, the Spratly?Island territory may contain significant deposits of undiscovered hydrocarbons?The US Geological Survey estimates anywhere between 0.8 and 5.4 (mean 2.5) billion barrels of oil and between 7.6 and 55.1 (mean 25.5) trillion cubic feet of natural gas in undiscovered resources. Evidence suggests that most of these resources are likely located in the contested Reed Bank at the northeast end of the Spratlys, which is claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam.? [5]
The Philippines has sought to explore and develop hydrocarbon resources around the Reed Bank since first discovering natural gas there in 1976. The US-based Sterling Energy and UK-based Forum Energy won exploration concessions for the area from Manila in 2002 and 2005 respectively. [6] However, the Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo administration bowed to Chinese pressure and suspended exploration concessions granted to foreign interests in the area. She opted instead for joint exploration with Beijing and Hanoi under the 2006 Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking (JMSU) in the disputed area.
By standing up to China in defense of sovereign claims, the Aquino government aims not only to boost its domestic popularity but also avoid criticism from millions of politically active and increasingly nationalistic netizens. His government?s policy stands in stark contrast with the Arroyo administration, which was widely viewed as subservient to China and tainted by corruption-ridden bilateral business deals.
Carrots and sticks
The Aquino administration has implemented a sometimes contradictory strategy by encouraging both a revitalized US military presence in the region while also attempting to appease China through diplomatic overtures. The strategy has been predicated on the assumption that a delicate combination of deterrence and diplomacy will neutralize Beijing?s expansive territorial claims.
However, Manila may have failed to fully appreciate the significance of China?s rising tide of popular nationalism, territorial assertiveness, and aggressive naval expansionism. Contrary to Philippine expectations, neither rising economic interdependence between China and Southeast Asia nor China?s leadership transition from Hu Jintao?to Xi Jinping has calmed Beijing?s territorial assertiveness.
Manila also failed to anticipate China?s anxiety about growing military cooperation between the US and regional allies and strategic partners such as the Philippines. That cooperation and occasional tough talk from Washington on freedom of navigation issues in the South China Sea has indirectly emboldened the Philippines and Vietnam to push their claims vis-a-vis China.
Just days after former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton expressed her country?s opposition to any ?unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration? of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, the Philippines took its South China Sea claims against China to UN arbitration. In the previous month, Vietnam?s new Law of the Sea took effect, which, among other things, emphasized the primacy of international law in deciding territorial disputes.
The Philippines is well aware that China will refuse to submit its claim of ?indisputable sovereignty? to any international arbitration panel. Indeed, there is no guarantee that international arbitration under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) will result in a decisive resolution of the disputes.
In this sense, the Philippine decision to internationalize the dispute should be viewed as a move to exert further pressure on Beijing by emphasizing to the international community the perceived unilateral and provocative character of China?s territorial claims. That includes China?s controversial ?nine-dash line? map, which covers practically all features in the disputed waters.
In addition to a number of European parliamentarians, [7] top US officials such as the newly-installed Secretary of State John Kerry [8] have already expressed their support for the Philippines? decision to resolve the disputes through international law.
The other stick in Manila?s new strategy is a military build-up. In 2012, Aquino sought an additional US$1.8 billion in defense spending, primarily to refurbish the country?s armed forces through the acquisition of ten attack helicopters, two naval helicopters, two light aircraft, one frigate and air force protection equipment. [9] His government also extended the 1995 Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernization Act, which promises 15 additional years of sustained investment in the country?s defense capabilities. [10]
In that direction, the Philippines is set to acquire 12 FA-50 fighter jets from Korea [11], three AW109 Power light twin helicopters [12], two anti-submarine choppers, [13] the US?s high endurance cutter USCGC Dallas?[14], and possibly Harpoon anti-ship missile systems for its flagship BRP?Del Pilar and BRP?Alcaraz vessels. [15]
F-50 Fighter (South Korea)
Japan and the US have also backed the Philippines? bid to develop a ?minimum deterrence? capability vis-a-vis China. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is now finalizing his country?s first major military aid package in recent history, with the Philippines set to be its biggest beneficiary. The Philippine Coast Guard is set to acquire from Japan next year 10 new 40-meter multi-role response vessels through a soft loan grant. [16]
In addition to tripling its military aid to the Philippines in 2012, the US has stepped up its military presence in the country through more rotational visits of its warships, nuclear submarines and military personnel ? a trend that is expected to rise in the coming years in light of the US?s announced ?pivot? towards Asia. [17]
As Brunei assumes the chairmanship of ASEAN, the Philippines? strategy is to use new sticks to convince China to take the carrot of a multilateral dispute-settlement mechanism, specifically the adoption of a legally-binding code of conduct for the South China Sea.
Judging by China?s defiant reaction to the Philippines? petition for UN arbitration in their disputes, there is a risk instead that Beijing views Manila?s new two-way strategy as more stick than carrot and responds with reciprocal hard measures.
Notes:
1. China insists again on bilateral talks on South China Sea dispute with PHL, GMA News, Feb 20
2. See here
3. See here
4. Chinese Army Unit Is Seen as Tied to Hacking Against US, New York Times, Feb 18
5. See here
6. Ibid.
7. EU solons back rules-based resolution to PH-China row, Journal Online, Feb 17
8. Kerry backs PH position to solve sea disputes under int?l law, Inquirer Global , Feb 14
9. See Philippine Defense Spending, GlobalSecurity.org
10. Aquino signs revised AFP Modernization Act, Philippine Star, December 11, 2012
11. Philippines to buy 12 fighter jets from South Korea, February 2, 2013
12. Philippines To Buy Three Naval Helicopters, Agence?France Presse, Dec 27, 2012
13. Military to buy 2 anti-submarine choppers, Philippine Star, November 19, 2012
14. 2nd warship?s arrival delayed, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Dec 3
15. AFP Eyeing Anti-Ship Missiles, Manila Bulletin, Feb 18, 2013
16. Japan grants PH ?soft loan? for 10 patrol boats, Manila Standard, Feb 14, 2013
17. Philippines eyes greater US military presence, Agence?France Presse, Oct 10, 2012
Richard Javad?Heydarian is a foreign affairs analyst focusing on Iran and international security. He is the author of the upcoming book The Economics of the Arab Spring: How Globalization Failed the Arab World, Zed Books, 2013. He can be reached at jrheydarian@gmail.com.
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MANILA, Philippines ? The United Nations is closely monitoring developments in the maritime dispute between the Philippines and China even as Manila reiterated assurances that its arbitration case against Beijing is ?a form of peaceful settlement of disputes, which should not be considered an unfriendly act.?
As this developed, the Philippines and Japan holds today their 2nd Dialogue on Maritime and Oceanic Affairs at the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA).
In a report to the DFA, Philippine Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the UN Libran?Cabactulan told UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon during a meeting last Feb. 19 that the filing of the arbitration case ?will be an opportunity for China to assure the international community of its peaceful rise.?
Cabactulan?stressed that Manila?s action was consistent with the position of the UN General Assembly since 1982 when it adopted the Manila Declaration on the Peaceful Settlement of International Disputes. ?Our representation with the Secretary-General conveyed this basic Philippines position,? Cabactulan said.
Accompanying the ambassador in his meeting with Ban were UN Undersecretary-General for Legal Affairs Patricia O?Brien and other senior UN officials.
Cabactulan?clarified that the case concerns China?s interpretation and application of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), specifically its nine-dash line claim which interferes with the lawful exercise by the Philippines of its sovereign rights and jurisdiction over its exclusive economic zone and continental shelf.
The DFA said on Wednesday that Beijing?s rejection of the arbitration process initiated by the Philippines was ?expected? but that it would proceed with or without China, in accordance with Annex VII of UNCLOS, spokesman Raul Hernandez said.
China had earlier returned the notice of arbitration.
The Philippines shrugged off Beijing?s rejection of its arbitration initiative and picked Rudiger?Wolfrum?as one of the five members of the international arbitration panel. Wolfrum?is one of the 21 members of ITLOS.
?Even if one party does not join or participate in the process, the process will continue until a decision is made by the arbitral?tribunal,? the DFA said, citing UNCLOS provisions.
China lays claim to nearly the entire South China Sea and West Philippine Sea and East Sea. The area, delineated by a so-called nine-dash line, covers over 100 islets, atolls and reefs.
The DFA said the Philippines? vigorous effort to resolve the dispute through legal means has earned praises from a visiting United States congressional delegation.
Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario said US Representative Jeff Miller, chairman of the US House Committee on Veterans? Affairs, lauded the Philippines for its ?patience in pursuing a peaceful and durable solution to the dispute and its measured approach in bringing the matter to arbitration.?
Del Rosario, in a statement, welcomed in return ?the correct posture taken by the US government with regard to the West Philippine Sea.?
The Philippines also expressed its appreciation for the firm commitment of the US to the Mutual Defense Treaty as well as its continuing assistance to Philippine efforts to build a minimum credible defense posture.
The other US lawmakers were Gus Bilirakis, Timothy Walz, Michael Michaud and Josiah Bonner.
Miller is a supporter of Philippine advocacies in the US Congress, particularly the SAVE Our Industries Act Bill.
The US lawmakers? visit provided an opportunity for Philippine officials to discuss the Filipino Veterans Equity Compensation Act and other issues concerning the welfare of Filipino veterans of World War II.
US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland earlier reiterated her country?s support for peaceful and diplomatic means to resolve territorial disputes in the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea, including the use of arbitration or other international legal mechanisms.
Nuland made the statement in response to a query on whether a Philippine request for international arbitration went against other types of mediation efforts cited previously by the State Department.
Meanwhile, Assistant Foreign Secretary Gilberto Asuque?chairs the Philippine delegation to the 2nd Dialogue on Maritime and Oceanic Affairs with Japan. Henry Bensurto, DFA Office of the Undersecretary for Policy, is co-chairman.
Heading the Japanese delegation is Ministry of Foreign Affairs Deputy Director-General for Southwest and Southeast Asian Affairs Kenji Kanasugi.
The Philippine delegation is also composed of representatives from the DFA, Department of National Defense, Philippine Coast Guard, Maritime Industry Authority, National Mapping and Resource Information Authority and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources.
The Japanese delegation is composed of representatives from MOFA, Secretariat of the Headquarters for Ocean Policy of the Cabinet Secretariat, Ministry of Defense and the Coast Guard.
During the meeting, the two countries will discuss various areas of cooperation particularly in maritime safety, maritime security, anti-piracy measures, fisheries and marine scientific research.
The first dialogue on maritime cooperation between the Philippines and Japan was held in Tokyo on Sept. 9, 2011. It was headed by Asuque?and Bensurto.
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MANILA, Philippines (Xinhua) ? Philippine and Japanese officials will meet in Manila Friday to discuss maritime cooperation and security, the Philippine foreign affairs department said today.
The Philippine delegation will be headed by Foreign Affairs Assistant Secretary Gilberto G.B. Asuque, while the Japanese delegation well be headed by Kenji Kanasugi, deputy director general at Japan?s foreign affairs ministry.
During the meeting, the two countries will discuss various areas of cooperation particularly in maritime safety, maritime security, anti-piracy measures, fisheries and marine scientific research.
Philippine and Japanese officials from the defense, foreign affairs and maritime departments will attend the dialogue.
This is the second time that the two countries is holding bilateral talks on maritime issues. The first dialogue on maritime cooperation between the Philippines and Japan was held in Tokyo in September 2011.
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Tags: anti-piracy measures, ASEAN, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, bilateral, China, Coast Guard, defense, Filipino Veterans Equity Compensation Act, fisheries, foreign affairs, Foreign Affairs Assistant Secretary Gilberto G.B. Asuque, Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario, Gilberto Asuque, Japan, Japanese, Kenji Kanasugi, marine scientific research, maritime safety, maritime security, Ministry of Defense, mutual defense treaty, News, nine-dash line, oil EEZ, Philippines, Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone, politics, Rudiger Wolfrum, Secretariat of the Headquarters for Ocean Policy of the Cabinet Secretariat, South China Sea, United Nations, West Philippine Sea
Source: http://johnib.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/philippines-takes-new-aim-at-china/
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